World and US energy outlook

In the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006) reference case, released December 12 by the US Energy Information Administration, world oil supplies are assumed to be tighter, as the combined productive capacity of the members of OPEC does not increase as much as previously projected.  World crude oil prices, expressed in terms of the average price of imported light, low-sulphur crude oil to US refiners, are projected to fall from current levels to about $47/barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014.

In the US, nuclear generating capacity is projected to increase from 100 GW in 2004 to 109 GA by 2030, with 3 GW of uprates at existing plants and 6 GW of new plants.

The new nuclear plants expected to be added in 2014 and beyond will be the first new nuclear plants ordered in the US in over 30 years.

The average delivered price of coal to electricity plants is expected to decrease modestly in the US from current levels to about $1.40 per million Btu (2004 dollars) in 2019 reflecting a combination of slow but continued improvements in expected mine productivity, and a continuing shift to coal from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. Coal remains the primary fuel for electricity generation in the US through 2030, with coal’s share of total generation increasing from 50% in 2004 to 57% in 2030.  Over this period, utilization at existing plants increases and large amounts of new coal-fired capacity are added, mainly after 2020.

The reference case projections from the AEO2006 and an overview of the results are available at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html