This 44% growth will be driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. However, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession. Total world energy use rises from 472 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110/barrel (bbl) in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130/bbl in 2030. Total liquid fuels and other petroleum consumption in 2030 is projected to be 22 million bbl/d higher than the 2006 level of 85 million bbl/d. In the reference case, conventional oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contribute 8.2 million bbl/d to the total increase in world liquid fuels production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 3.4 bbl/d.
In addition, unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both non-OPEC and OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case. World production of unconventional resources, which totalled 3.1 bbl/d in 2006, increases to 13.4 million bbl/d in 2030 in the reference case, accounting for 13% of total world liquids supply in 2030.
Recent experience demonstrates that world oil prices can be extremely volatile and, as a result, the IEO2009 includes three world oil price cases that span a very broad range in 2030, from $50/bbl (in 2007 dollars) in the low price case to $200/bbl in the high price case. These price paths translate to a fairly broad range of potential supply outlooks in 2030, ranging from 90 million bbl/d in the high price case to 120 million bbl/d in the low price case (compared to 107 million bbl/d in the reference case)
Other report highlights include:
- The rapid increase in world energy prices from 2003 to 2008, combined with concerns about the environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, has led to renewed interest in the development of alternatives to fossil fuels. Renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of world electricity generation in the IEO2009 reference case, supported by high prices for fossil fuels and by government incentives for the development of alternative energy sources. From 2006 to 2030, world renewable energy use for electricity generation grows by an average of 2.9% per year, and the renewable share of world electricity generation increases from 19% in 2006 to 21% in 2030. Hydropower and wind power are the major sources of incremental renewable electricity supply.
- Worldwide, industrial energy consumption is expected to grow from 175 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 246 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Industrial energy demand varies across regions and countries of the world, based on levels and mixes of economic activity and technological development, among other factors. About 94% of the world increase in industrial sector energy consumption is projected to occur in the emerging economies, where-driven by rapid economic growth-industrial energy consumption grows at an average annual rate of 2.1% in the reference case. The key engines of growth in the projection are the so-called “BRIC” countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), which account for more than two-thirds of the developing world’s growth in industrial energy use through 2030.
- In the IEO2009 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29,100 Mt in 2005 to 40,400 Mt in 2030-an increase of 39%. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
The full report can be found on EIA’s web site at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
