Global coal consumption will jump nearly 50% by 2030, according to recent analysis by the US Department of
Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2009 predicts that world coal consumption will increase from 128 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 190 quadrillion Btu in 2030, marking an average annual growth rate of 1.7%. On a tonnage basis, world coal consumption will grow 47% from 6,117 Mt in 2006 to 8,995 Mt in 2030, an average annual growth rate of 1.6%. The dramatic increase in global use of coal is the result of a predicted 44% jump in world energy consumption (2006-2030) documented in the report.
According to the report, 73% of that increase in world energy consumption is the result of expected strong economic growth in non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Despite the current near-term economic slump, EIA expects demand for energy for manufacturing and consumer products to rebound
after 2010. EIA anticipates a 15% growth rate in OECD countries during the same period.
In North America, EIA predicts coal-based generation will grow from approximately 24 quadrillion Btus in 2006 to
nearly 29 quadrillion Btus in 2030. China, the world’s largest coal producing country, will see its coal-based generation level nearly double, jumping from 52 quadrillion Btus in 2006 to 98 quadrillion Btus in 2030. India’s 9.4 quadrillion Btu consumption level rises 51% to 14.2 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
In the US, the latest Coal Producer and Reserve Holder Survey documents from the National Mining Association (NMA) show record coal production in 2008 matched with another significant spike in US coal exports. According to the 2008 survey, coal production totalled some 1,061 Mt, marking an increase of 2.2%, despite weak economic conditions that began to slow coal consumption particularly through the last half of the year.
NMA attributed the increase to strong demand from the power sector and global markets. According to the report, the outlook for 2009 is less optimistic due to the continuing weak economy.
The survey charts the top 40 coal companies by production and share of domestic market. Peabody Energy topped the list with a record 181.8 Mt of production in 2008, Rio Tinto Energy America was second with 130.6 Mt, and Arch Coal third with 127 Mt. The survey also lists many of the top underground, surface and multi-mine complex mine producers, as well as the top reserve holders.
Coal exports, which account for 7% of total US coal production, increased in 2008 by 20.2 Mt, or nearly 38%, due to a tremendous global market demand for US coal. US exports increased to nearly all regions of the world. Total coal exports in 2008 were nearly 74 Mt, a level not reached in over a decade. Coal imports of 31 Mt represented a nearly 6% drop from 2007 levels.
Coal-based power generation decreased 1.1% to 1,994 billion kWh in 2008, with coal continuing to provide close to 50% of generation.
The survey also highlights the leading coal reserve holding companies in America, and notes that the US is home to approximately one quarter of the world’s known coal reserves, approximately 239,000 Mt, enough to last more than 200 years at today’s rate of use.
